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LIVE · VOL. I, NO. 31

The Intangibles Index

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A wins predictor for the analytically overconfident. Because Wins Above Replacement cannot measure what you lose when you trade or give away your clubhouse.

Subject: 2026 New York Mets · Live Readout
Record
42 – 58
Current Streak
W 1
Payroll
$381M
PECOTA Projection
89wins
Current 162-Game Pace
68wins
PECOTABaseball Prospectus's preseason win forecast (Nate Silver's model)
162-Game Pacetoday's win % extrapolated across a full season
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Preset Archetypes — click to load
1 / 4
Output · The Prediction
Intangibles-Adjusted
72
full model · quant + the α correction
Quant-Only
89
if intangibles = 0 · the preseason spreadsheet
2026 Mets Current Pace
68
through 100 games · 42-58
The spreadsheet misses by 21 wins. With the intangibles (α) correction, the full model misses by just 4.
Cost Efficiency Audit · What each win actually costs
Cost Per Win
$5.60M
payroll ÷ wins
Historical Percentile
BOTTOM 1% Historically inefficient
Efficiency Spectrum
2026 METS LEAGUE AVG 2002 A'S
Tune The Model

Change the prediction above by adjusting the model below, including the intangibles. Move the quantifiable WAR inputs on the left, or the harder-to-measure clubhouse factors on the right, and watch the forecast shift.

The Quant Side

β · fWAR

What the projection systems see. Numbers have opinions about these.

fWAR · Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement Fangraphs' version of the all-in-one stat that estimates how many wins a player adds versus a freely-available "replacement" player (think Triple-A call-up). A good regular sits around 2.0. An All-Star clears 4.0. An MVP season goes 7+. Sum every player on the roster and you have the team's total quantifiable value.

The Intangibles Side

α · Intangibles

What the projection systems don't see. What David Stearns gave away.

The Intangibles Ledger — 2026 Moves, Projected vs On-Pace Snapshot as of July 20, 2026 · Updated periodically

Given Away α · proj → pace

  • Brandon Nimmo CF · TEX
    .263, 9 HR, the steady regular quietly producing in Texas
    proj 2.9 pace 2.3 −0.6 ▼
  • Edwin Díaz CL · LAD
    four saves, a 10.50 ERA, then elbow surgery ended itinj
    proj 1.3 pace 0.0 −1.3 ▼
  • Pete Alonso 1B · BAL
    21 HR, .809 OPS, the bat they let walk, now beating his number
    proj 3.6 pace 3.7 +0.1 ▲
  • Starling Marte OF · KC
    $1M twilight tour, now barely playing in Kansas City
    proj 0.4 pace 0.0 −0.4 ▼
  • Jeff McNeil 2B · ATH
    .233, 3 HR, still below replacement, the quiet fade continues
    proj 2.6 pace −0.6 −3.2 ▼
Given Away proj 10.8 pace 5.4 −5.4 ▼

Acquired β · proj → pace

  • Luis Robert Jr. CF
    still rehabbing the herniated disc, 24 games all seasoninj
    proj 2.1 pace 0.2 −1.9 ▼
  • Freddy Peralta SP
    4.66 ERA, 5-8, the deal already reads like a dud
    proj 2.5 pace 1.9 −0.6 ▼
  • Bo Bichette SS
    .253, .670 OPS, the Bo-ment never did arrive
    proj 3.8 pace 1.3 −2.5 ▼
  • Devin Williams CL
    4.68 ERA, 14 saves, the low bar finally caught up
    proj 1.1 pace 1.0 −0.1 ▼
  • Marcus Semien 2B
    .207, then a Grade 3 hip flexor strain, the decline made literalinj
    proj 2.8 pace −1.0 −3.8 ▼
  • Jorge Polanco DH
    back from the Achilles as a part-time DH, .169 and rusty
    proj 2.1 pace −1.0 −3.1 ▼
Acquired proj 14.4 pace 2.4 −12.0 ▼
The Trade: Projected vs Realized acquired minus given away · fWAR
Projected swing +3.6
On pace for −3.0
Through 100 games the Mets are 42-58, buried in last place and openly for sale. The winter's moves projected to add 3.6 wins of value over what walked out the door. On pace, the return is now 3.0 wins underwater, the gap widening on both sides of the ledger. The cruelest line in the whole book: the only winter transaction beating its projection is Pete Alonso, the bat they let walk over a formula. Every player they acquired is now on pace under water, Semien and Polanco both below replacement, Bichette's Bo-ment never arriving. Edwin Díaz resurfaced in Los Angeles, posted a 10.50 ERA, and needs elbow surgery. Andy Green runs the interim clubhouse and fields questions about AI pitch-calling while Stearns takes calls from every buyer before the August 3 deadline. Add the intangibles (clubhouse, crowd, fan favorite equity) and the swing is uglier still.
E(W) = Wr + β · fWAR + α + ε
Wr · Replacement Floor

A team of freely available talent wins ≈ 48 games.

β · fWAR

The quantifiable part. Your roster's projected Fangraphs Wins Above Replacement.

α · Intangibles

Everything the spreadsheet can't see. Chemistry, leadership, vibes.

ε · Error

Luck. BABIP. The ump. The ball.